Thanks so much. Opera - great question. There's a lot to like there. Good valuation with forward PE at 15 and peg of 0.3. EPS expected to continue higher. High margin and very decent FCF. And apparently good with buybacks and dividends. So all that's good. What doesn't excite me is the ROCE and ROIC. Single digits on average the past 5 years still. And then there's the product, which I get is niche, customizeable, and constantly improving. But I don't personally get what's extra good about Opera vs the big guys, and I don't have any sense about their long-term durability. I also don't like they get a big chunk of revenue from Google, their competitor. I'd say if you know the product well and like it a lot, and see others liking it a lot, then you may be on to something here. Hope this helped. I'll keep them on my radar too now. All the very best and stay in touch. Ps here's a good deep dive for more info: https://welfarecapital.substack.com/p/opera-limited-opra-deep-dive-6
Thanks for your well detailed comment on Opera Joel! Article also interesting. I think they have a good product and legislation helped to increase market share.
Financial health, increasing growth combined with low capex needs convince me to enter in Opera 1year ago and increase position in summer dip.
I think it's today undervalued for the reason/fear listed also in the article but if I look fundamentals they are great. In my opinion they can go up 20-30% before end of the year. At this time I will doublecheck what to do because timeframe >2-3years is honestly difficult to predict
Interesting list! Many good names that I´m also following for potential entry's or opportunities to add to Fortnox and Harvia. Some names that you might have missed, hmm... have you looked at Marimekko (FI) or Chemometec (DEN)? From Norway, I recently started looking at Medistim.
Thanks so much! On the ones I may have missed, I know all three you mention and they're stellar. For Chemometec and Medistim, I focus on companies I really know, and their industries are a bit too unknown for me at this point. I don't have a good feeling for their long-term durability. I have much more experience and understanding with Hemnet which I've used for decades, and Fortnox, which I've tested and will use for my own business. Great call with Marimekko. They are a strong brand here and their numbers are excellent. I could indeed add them to the list. Thanks again, keep in touch and let me know if you find other stars.
Thanks so much, and really cool there's overlap. For Harvia, I think an implied 20% nopat growth this year feels high. In any case, for my 24x forward earnings I just went by Stockpedia's calculation. I see that Finchat puts the number at 27x. I'm not super interested at current prices so I haven't worked it out myself. Who else do you have on your list? All the best and have a great rest of your weekend.
Thanks so much Greg, really appreciate it. Good call with Mips. I know them and they're crushing it right now. They light up every Nordic stock screener and I see their branding around town here. At bike shops etc. But I know Hemnet and Fortnox much better. I've visited and used Hemnet for decades, and I've tested and will use Fortnox for my own business. I think both also benefit from network effects and high switching costs. For Mips, they've got a great thing now, but I haven't used their product myself and I don't have a good grasp of the long-term for them. If they have a durable advantage etc. But you've inspired me to look into them more. Thanks again, keep in touch, let me know if you find other gems, and have a great day today.
Wow, thanks, excellent write-up. I like them way more now after reading your post. The gore-tex of helmets. Great way to put it. And I'm now following you. Let's stay in touch. All the best from up here.
Love this list Joel and super concise summary for each of them ! I’ve written on Atlas and will soon do a deep dive on Novo and maybe Axfood in the future but need to look into the others!
To seed, build, and nurture timeless, intangible human capitals — such as resilience, trust, truth, evolution, fulfilment, quality, peace, patience, discipline, relationships and conviction — in order to elevate human judgment, deepen relationships, and restore sacred trusteeship and stewardship of long-term firm value across generations.
A refreshing take on our business world and capitalism.
A reflection on why today’s capital architectures—PE, VC, Hedge funds, SPAC, Alt funds, Rollups—mostly fail to build and nuture what time can trust.
“Built to Be Left.”
A quiet anatomy of extraction, abandonment, and the collapse of stewardship.
"Principal-Agent Risk is not a flaw in the system.
Thanks so much. Opera - great question. There's a lot to like there. Good valuation with forward PE at 15 and peg of 0.3. EPS expected to continue higher. High margin and very decent FCF. And apparently good with buybacks and dividends. So all that's good. What doesn't excite me is the ROCE and ROIC. Single digits on average the past 5 years still. And then there's the product, which I get is niche, customizeable, and constantly improving. But I don't personally get what's extra good about Opera vs the big guys, and I don't have any sense about their long-term durability. I also don't like they get a big chunk of revenue from Google, their competitor. I'd say if you know the product well and like it a lot, and see others liking it a lot, then you may be on to something here. Hope this helped. I'll keep them on my radar too now. All the very best and stay in touch. Ps here's a good deep dive for more info: https://welfarecapital.substack.com/p/opera-limited-opra-deep-dive-6
Thanks for your well detailed comment on Opera Joel! Article also interesting. I think they have a good product and legislation helped to increase market share.
Financial health, increasing growth combined with low capex needs convince me to enter in Opera 1year ago and increase position in summer dip.
I think it's today undervalued for the reason/fear listed also in the article but if I look fundamentals they are great. In my opinion they can go up 20-30% before end of the year. At this time I will doublecheck what to do because timeframe >2-3years is honestly difficult to predict
Interesting list! Many good names that I´m also following for potential entry's or opportunities to add to Fortnox and Harvia. Some names that you might have missed, hmm... have you looked at Marimekko (FI) or Chemometec (DEN)? From Norway, I recently started looking at Medistim.
Thanks so much! On the ones I may have missed, I know all three you mention and they're stellar. For Chemometec and Medistim, I focus on companies I really know, and their industries are a bit too unknown for me at this point. I don't have a good feeling for their long-term durability. I have much more experience and understanding with Hemnet which I've used for decades, and Fortnox, which I've tested and will use for my own business. Great call with Marimekko. They are a strong brand here and their numbers are excellent. I could indeed add them to the list. Thanks again, keep in touch and let me know if you find other stars.
Great list, Joel! And really encouraging to see more Substacks focusing on the Nordic markets :)
Thanks so much Sigbjørn, nice to meet you and yeah let’s keep in touch.
@Joel Sherwood seems like you have an impersonator! (and not a very good one)
Yeah I saw that. Not sure what to do. A bit irritating. And also slightly flattering?!
Clearly you're doing something right if people are trying (badly) to copy it ;)
Thanks, interesting list! Any thoughts about Opera?
Very good list, I have many of the names on my list as well.
How do you end up at a x24 multiple for Harvia?
That implies a little bit more than 20% NOPAT growth for 2025, if im not wrong
Thanks so much, and really cool there's overlap. For Harvia, I think an implied 20% nopat growth this year feels high. In any case, for my 24x forward earnings I just went by Stockpedia's calculation. I see that Finchat puts the number at 27x. I'm not super interested at current prices so I haven't worked it out myself. Who else do you have on your list? All the best and have a great rest of your weekend.
Ah understood, thx for that.
You might want to check out Bergman&Beving, even though its not the easiest to understand.
You too, wish a relaxed weekend 😉
Just initiated an entry position in NVO, curious to see where this company is headed.
Fortnox !!
I love Nekkar ASA, one of my highest convictions right now.
Nekkar looks very interesting. Good price too. Thanks for highlighting!
We subbed to your publication. Awesome read with some great new insights and companies. Thanks for sharing!
Thanks so much guys, big fans of yours. And a subscriber of course. Really great to have you on board and let's keep in touch.
Nice list! EQT, Novo and Coloplast are definitely interesting businesses. Did you look at swedish MIPS by any chance?
Thanks so much Greg, really appreciate it. Good call with Mips. I know them and they're crushing it right now. They light up every Nordic stock screener and I see their branding around town here. At bike shops etc. But I know Hemnet and Fortnox much better. I've visited and used Hemnet for decades, and I've tested and will use Fortnox for my own business. I think both also benefit from network effects and high switching costs. For Mips, they've got a great thing now, but I haven't used their product myself and I don't have a good grasp of the long-term for them. If they have a durable advantage etc. But you've inspired me to look into them more. Thanks again, keep in touch, let me know if you find other gems, and have a great day today.
Thanks! Good to b know MIPS are being active. I wore my late piece on them if you want to have a look https://elevatorpitch.substack.com/p/mips-80-roic-and-double-digit-growthwhats?utm_campaign=post&showWelcomeOnShare=true would love to have your view given you are on site! Have a great day!
Wow, thanks, excellent write-up. I like them way more now after reading your post. The gore-tex of helmets. Great way to put it. And I'm now following you. Let's stay in touch. All the best from up here.
Many thanks for the kinds words and the follow Joel, especially given the quality of your writing!
Love this list Joel and super concise summary for each of them ! I’ve written on Atlas and will soon do a deep dive on Novo and maybe Axfood in the future but need to look into the others!
Hello there,
Huge Respect for your work!
New here. No huge reader base Yet.
But the work has waited long to be spoken.
Its truths have roots older than this platform.
My Sub-stack Purpose
To seed, build, and nurture timeless, intangible human capitals — such as resilience, trust, truth, evolution, fulfilment, quality, peace, patience, discipline, relationships and conviction — in order to elevate human judgment, deepen relationships, and restore sacred trusteeship and stewardship of long-term firm value across generations.
A refreshing take on our business world and capitalism.
A reflection on why today’s capital architectures—PE, VC, Hedge funds, SPAC, Alt funds, Rollups—mostly fail to build and nuture what time can trust.
“Built to Be Left.”
A quiet anatomy of extraction, abandonment, and the collapse of stewardship.
"Principal-Agent Risk is not a flaw in the system.
It is the system’s operating principle”
Experience first. Return if it speaks to you.
- The Silent Treasury
https://tinyurl.com/48m97w5e